Sunday, June 8, 2008

Paving the way for Bill James


In the July 1969 issue of Baseball Digest, writer/author John Holway tried to make the argument that, based upon "exclusive new figures," Luis Tiant was the best pitcher in 1968.

The "new figures" he cited involved computing hitters' averages against pitchers based upon how many hits the pitchers gave up during the season. Holway considered this to be a better way to evaluate a pitcher than either ERA or W-L record. Using this system, Holway proclaimed Luis Tiant the "stingiest" pitcher that legendary year--better than Gibson and his 1.12 ERA, McLain and his 31 wins, and so on.

Only one problem: Holway didn't include walks yielded as a factor. So, by his calculation, Sam McDowell and Sonny Siebert were "better" than McLain. If you add walks plus hits, for instance, and subtract them from innings pitched, the best pitcher in 1968 was Baltimore's Dave McNally. Gibson, Tiant and McLain were neck-and-neck in this rating, but behind McNally. They each were about plus-34-35 if one subtracted walks plus hits from innings, while McNally was plus 43.

The true master of keeping runners off base was Sandy Koufax. He had a couple of years where he simply blew the standard away. In 1965, he was plus 58. Had he been pitching in 1968, god only knows what numbers he might have put up.

McDowell didn't give up many hits in 1968, but he walked 110 batters and actually had more hits plus walks than he did innings pitched. Same for Siebert.

Holway has been at the cutting edge of much of baseball research and has gone far beyond such simplistic evaluations during his long career. He was another fan in 1968 who was much taken by the year's pitching achievements, most of which were due to rules changes designed to help pitchers. When the rules makers decided fans wanted more offense, they simply reversed course, lowering the mound, narrowing the strike zone and juicing up the ball.

Then along came steriods. Let's see how the rules makers handle this one.

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